If you want to understand the U.S. conflict against Iran, look at the wider Persian Gulf region.

For years, too many geopolitical analysts treated the Abraham Accords as some kind of diplomatic magic trick, or a Trump-era photo op, or a betrayal story to be told entirely through the Israeli-Palestinian lens. 

But the Gulf countries themselves were telling us something much simpler and much more important: they were scared of Iran, and with good reason. Even Reuters noted back in 2020 that Bahrain’s normalization with Israel unfolded against “shared fears” of the threat Iran posed to the region. That was not a side note. That was the story.

And now the story is writing itself in fire across the Persian Gulf.

Iran has, in fact, attacked multiple Gulf states in recent days. Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, Oman and Iraq all reported missile or drone attacks as the conflict widened. This was not an isolated strike or a misunderstanding or one rogue projectile blown off course. It was a regional campaign aimed at countries Iran has long treated as inconvenient neighbors, American clients, or soft targets.

Bahrain was hit. CENTCOM said Iran fired seven attack drones at civilian residential neighborhoods there. AP also reported that Bahrain accused Iran of damaging one of its desalination plants, which is not some minor side facility in a desert climate. In the Gulf, desalination is life support. Hit the water, and you are not merely sending a message. You are threatening civilian survival.

The UAE was hit too, including incidents in and around Dubai. Reuters reported loud blasts over Dubai and damage from retaliatory strikes and intercept debris, while AP reported that Iranian strikes near Dubai’s Jebel Ali port landed within range of one of the world’s largest desalination plants. Damage was also reported at the Fujairah power and water complex. So when people ask whether the attacks in Dubai were “real,” the answer is yes. They were real enough to hit infrastructure, disrupt trade, and remind the Gulf that Iran’s missiles do not respect anyone’s preferred narrative.

Then came the familiar part: the walk-back. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian apologized to neighboring Gulf states and said Tehran would suspend attacks on nearby countries unless those countries were used to attack Iran. That sounds nice for about five minutes, until you get to the next sentence: attacks on Gulf states continued afterward, even as Iran’s military said U.S. and Israeli targets across the region would remain in the crosshairs. 

That is the pattern. Attack, deny, redefine, apologize, continue.

This is why the Gulf states moved toward Israel in the first place. Not because they suddenly forgot geography. Not because they were naïve. Not because they needed a lecture from Western academics about “optics.” 

They did it because they understood the strategic map. Israel was not the power funding militias across the region, arming proxies, menacing shipping lanes, and reminding small neighboring states that their airports, ports, embassies, water plants and oil facilities could all become targets at any moment. Iran was. The shared threat perception was the engine behind normalization.

What is especially striking now is that the Gulf states still are not rushing to become full participants in the war. Reuters reported that they have tried to avoid becoming formal co-belligerents even while activating joint air defenses, invoking Article 51 of the U.N. Charter, and warning Tehran not to keep pushing. Saudi Arabia, in particular, has tried to preserve room for diplomacy while also warning Iran that continued attacks could trigger retaliation and possibly a broader alignment with the United States. In other words, even now, the Gulf states are showing more restraint than the regime attacking them.

That matters, because the propaganda version of this war says Iran is simply reacting to outside pressure. But that is not the whole picture, and it never was. Iran did not stumble into regional isolation because of bad public relations. It got there by behaving like the neighborhood arsonist and then demanding sympathy when the block finally compared notes.

The Gulf nations saw this years ago. That is one reason they sought new alignments, new intelligence relationships, new missile defenses, and yes, new ties with Israel. The current attacks on Bahrain and the UAE do not complicate that story. They confirm it.

Iran is in this mess because it spent years proving its neighbors’ worst fears correct.

(Contributing writer, Brooke Bell)